The cluster page that owns the phrase “manufacturing valuation calculator” lives at manufacturing valuation calculator. Manufacturing business valuation stays the pillar. This URL is the size-band worksheet.
How does this worksheet work?
There is no form and no engine. The JSON spec at /calculators/manufacturing-valuation-calculator.spec.json lists inputs, sourced defaults, and outputs. A future widget, if it ships, must follow that spec. Until then, do the arithmetic on paper.
Step 1. Choose SDE or adjusted EBITDA. SDE versus EBITDA is the fork. Owner-operated discretionary earnings under about $1 million → SDE. A real replacement manager already in the number → EBITDA.
Step 2. Choose the process row, not the NAICS code you prefer. Multiples by sub-sector explains why aerospace and medical sit high and why commodity print sits low.
Step 3. Multiply earnings by the cell. Midpoint is not a quote. Outside the cell needs an auditable reason.
Step 4. Move inside the cell with concentration, certificates, owner dependence, and equipment age. Those are broker habits, labeled as such.
Step 5. Compare earnings value to orderly liquidation value plus normalized net working capital. If the floor wins, stop.
This is educational copy. It is not a live quote. It is not an appraisal. Appraisal versus broker opinion is the boundary.
What size-band table is sourced?
Label for every cell: advisor-survey / reported-deal ranges, not an appraisal.
Main Street marker: BizBuySell’s recap of manufacturing transactions 2021–2025 printed a 2.75x median SDE on about $268k of discretionary earnings, interquartile 2.04x–3.59x (Source: BizBuySell / Iconic). That marker is the gravity well for owner-operated shops. It is not a PE headline.
| Site size band | Earnings base | Process family | Cell this worksheet uses | Why the cell exists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
sde-under-1m | SDE | General CNC / job shop, no specialty cert | 2.0x–3.6x | BizBuySell manufacturing quartiles 2021–2025 |
sde-under-1m | SDE | Commodity metal fabrication | 2.0x–3.5x | Same Main Street set; discount versus certified shops |
sde-under-1m | SDE | Specialty machining / medical / aero still under $1M SDE | 3.0x–5.0x | Wider observed CTA/IBBA synthesis; still SDE |
ebitda-1-3m | Adj. EBITDA | General fab / print / commodity | 4.0x–5.5x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
ebitda-1-3m | Adj. EBITDA | Precision machining / plastics | 5.0x–6.5x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
ebitda-1-3m | Adj. EBITDA | Aerospace AS9100 / medical ISO 13485 | 6.0x–8.0x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
ebitda-3-10m | Adj. EBITDA | General fab / print / commodity | 5.0x–6.5x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
ebitda-3-10m | Adj. EBITDA | Precision machining / plastics | 5.5x–7.5x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
ebitda-3-10m | Adj. EBITDA | Aerospace AS9100 / medical ISO 13485 | 6.5x–9.0x | Synthesized LMM ranges |
IBBA / M&A Source Market Pulse Q1 2026 plotted the $5–$50 million band near ~4.5x–5.1x EBITDA as advisor-survey, not GF Data (Source: IBBA). GF Data Q1 2026 manufacturing recap printed a 7.2x average, 5.9x under $25 million EV, and 8.8x at $100–$250 million EV (Source: Iconic). Those larger-EV prints do not sit on a $400k-SDE job shop.
Why must Stanford’s 6.2x stay off the job-shop row?
Stanford’s 2024–25 search-fund median neighborhood is about $16 million purchase price at ~6.2x EBITDA on a ~25% margin company (Source: Stanford GSB). That is a study profile. It is not a job-shop law. This worksheet refuses to blend that 6.2x onto an owner-estimator shop, refuses to average 2.75x SDE with 6.2x EBITDA, and refuses to call the blend “the manufacturing multiple.”
If your file is a walk-in quote desk with 11% margin, you are in the SDE rows. If your file already pays a general manager and prints reportable EBITDA on a ~25% margin, you may belong in an EBITDA row — still not automatically in the Stanford neighborhood. Size band and process still come first.
SBA 7(a) still caps at $5 million with a 10% injection (Source: SBA). A cell that implies enterprise value above that box needs a different stack. The worksheet will not hide the cap.
What inputs and outputs does the spec declare?
Inputs: earnings base (SDE or adjusted EBITDA), trailing earnings dollars, process family, size band, and whether an OLV floor has been commissioned. Defaults: Main Street median multiple 2.75x SDE; median discretionary earnings ~$268k; 2025 manufacturing median close 223 days (Source: BizBuySell / Iconic; BizBuySell 2025 Year in Review). Those defaults are climate. They are not your plant.
Outputs: selected cell range, illustrative earnings value at the low / mid / high of the cell, a written reminder to test OLV, and a refusal flag if the user tries to apply 6.2x to an sde-under-1m job shop.
Method notes in the spec repeat the rule: one cell, then modifiers, then the floor. Inventory sits in the working-capital peg. Real estate sits outside the operating multiple. EBITDA multiples by size is the longer size essay.
What this worksheet will not do
It will not invent a live price. It will not sign a USPAP report. It will not average the table. It will not add “a turn for ISO” as a rule. It will not treat ISM’s August 2026 PMI of 54.6 or Fed utilization of 76.0% in July 2026 as a multiple adder (Source: ISM; Fed G.17). Climate stays in the CIM weather sentence.
Census CBP 2023 counted 284,452 manufacturing establishments; 68.4% have fewer than 20 employees (Source: Census CBP). Most of those files live in the SDE rows. That is allowed. Costuming them as search-median EBITDA files is not.
Sell my manufacturing business is the seller door when you want a marketed range. Hire an appraiser when a lender, a trustee, or a court asked for a standard this page does not claim.
Educational information only. Not a live quote. Not an appraisal. Jason Taken is a business broker with HedgeStone Business Advisors. No cell is your plant’s price. The conversion path is a confidential intro call.