What belongs in the tariff and mix binder?
Imported input list with HTS as currently classified. Surcharge history versus contract formulas. Customer pushback on pass-through. Lost and won work that cites landed cost. Supplier concentration is the vendor cousin. Backlog and contracts is where lagging formulas turn a firm book into a trap.
Future “givebacks” are not trailing earnings. They die on the add-back schedule. A CIM that capitalizes a hoped-for refund is a brochure.
Census CBP 2023 still counts 284,452 manufacturing establishments (Source: Census). Most will feel input prices. Few should rewrite their size-band × sub-sector cell because a headline moved. A sde-under-1m fab shop stays in 2.0x–3.5x SDE until the run-rate says otherwise. A $3–10M specialty packer stays in 5.5x–7.5x EBITDA if pass-through holds.
What reshoring figures can a CIM cite?
Reshoring Initiative: 244,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs announced in 2024 via reshoring plus FDI, and 1.7 million jobs filled since 2010 (Source: Reshoring Initiative, 2025-06-09). A 2026 Initiative note described reshoring rising from about 11,000 announced jobs per year in 2010 toward 244,000 per year in the later print (Source: Reshoring Initiative, 2026-04-06). An early-2025 outlook had discussed a possible drop toward about 174,000 announced jobs if policy was unstable — treat that as a dated outlook, not a final tally.
Those figures are national climate. They do not move your plant into the aerospace 7.0x–11.0x $10M+ column. They can explain why a book shifted toward domestic content — if the ERP shows it. Customer concentration still applies if one OEM “reshored” into your bay and became 38% of sales.
Fed G.17 utilization 76.0% (July 2026; Source: Fed G.17) means the country still has unused capacity. Reshoring into a full one-shift shop is a hiring and overtime story, not a free turn.
How should buyers underwrite pass-through?
Read the last four quarters of surcharges versus cost. Read cancel-for-convenience next to any “tariff premium” in the book. Ask whether the second source is customer-qualified. Ask trade counsel for current 232/301 status — retrieval date 2026-09-10 on the research file; the live regime can change.
Do not treat CHIPS or IRA headlines as a plant-level multiple. Those programs exist. Eligibility is not a CIM adjective.
| Claim | Plant test | Valuation treatment |
|---|---|---|
| “Tariffs help us” | Invoice mix + pass-through | High end of current cell if true |
| “Tariffs crush us” | Last 6 months run-rate | Lower end or distress path |
| Future giveback | None | Not an add-back |
| Reshoring premium | Named programs in ERP | Climate unless the book shows it |
| Frozen 232/301 rate | Confirm current status | Do not publish a stale rate |
| New official multiple | Does not exist | Keep size × sub-sector cell |
What sellers should not do
Do not write a patriotic paragraph in place of a surcharge table. Do not hide a 40% imported BOM. Do not promise a reshoring customer who has not released. Do not average GF Data’s 7.2x into a tariff story.
Buyers: buy a manufacturing business. Sellers: sell my manufacturing business. The valuation pillar keeps the cells. Jason Taken is a business broker, not trade counsel. Educational information only. Confirm current tariff status with qualified advisors. No value is guaranteed.
How to write a mix-shift exhibit that is not a press release
Trailing-eight-quarter sales by domestic versus imported content, by customer program, and by whether a surcharge stuck. If domestic content rose because one OEM moved a tool, name the OEM percent. That may be concentration, not a reshoring premium. If imported content rose because a cheaper house won, name the margin.
Reshoring Initiative’s 244,000 announced jobs in 2024 is a national figure you may cite with a retrieval date. It does not belong as a line on your P&L.
What trade counsel should be asked before exclusivity
Current classification, current 232/301 status, whether a drawback or exclusion is in force, and whether a foreign buyer creates ITAR or CFIUS issues on top of the tariff story. Retrieval date on the research file is 2026-09-10. The live regime can move. This page will not publish a stale rate as if it were a law of nature.
Foreign buyers and CFIUS is the inbound cousin. Do not mix that clock with a steel surcharge.
When a tariff shock is actually distress
If pass-through failed, the whale left, and the last six months annualize to a fraction of last year’s SDE, you are on the distressed page. Peak-year SDE is not the base. OLV may be. Do not keep a 2024 CIM cell because 2024 had a lucky surcharge.
If pass-through held and the book filled with domestic work, you may sit high in the current cell. You still do not invent a tariff multiple. Methods remain the sequence. Supplier concentration remains the vendor test.
Sellers should put the surcharge table in the teaser packet. Buyers should rebuild it from invoices. Headlines are for the first paragraph of a CIM, not the last word on price.
How to keep a CIM from becoming a policy essay
Open with the surcharge table and the mix-shift table. Cite ISM Prices 71.1 and PMI 54.6 as climate with dates. Cite the Reshoring Initiative 244000 announced jobs in 2024 with a retrieval date if you want national color. Then return to invoices. A policy paragraph that is longer than the surcharge table is a brochure.
Confirm current HTS and Section 232 or 301 status with trade counsel. Retrieval on the research file is 2026-09-10. The live regime moves. Do not freeze a rate in a sentence that will still be on the site next quarter. Do not treat a hoped-for exclusion as trailing earnings.
If one OEM moved a tool into your bay and became 38 percent of sales, you have concentration, not a reshoring trophy. If pass-through failed and the last six months died, you have distress logic, not a 2024 cell. If pass-through held and domestic content rose across several accounts, you may sit high in the current cell. You still do not invent a tariff multiple.
Foreign-buyer clocks and CFIUS sit next to this story on some files. They are a different page. Do not mix them into a steel surcharge. Keep methods as the sequence. Keep the vendor file as the test. Keep headlines in the first paragraph, not in the last word on price.
A mix-shift table that replaces patriotic paragraphs
Eight quarters of sales by domestic versus imported content, by program, and by whether a surcharge stuck. If domestic content rose because one OEM moved a tool, write that OEM percent. That may be concentration. If imported content rose because a cheaper house won, write the margin. If pass-through failed and six months died, write distress logic. If pass-through held across several accounts, you may sit high in the current cell.
Cite ISM Prices 71.1 and PMI 54.6 with dates. Cite 244000 announced reshoring-plus-FDI jobs in 2024 with a retrieval date if you want national color. Then stop citing and return to invoices. Confirm current HTS and 232 or 301 status with trade counsel. Do not freeze a rate. Do not treat an exclusion you do not have as trailing earnings. Do not invent a tariff multiple. Methods remain the sequence. The vendor file remains the test.
A closer read on mix table
Eight quarters of sales by domestic versus imported content, by program, and by whether a surcharge stuck. One OEM who became 38 percent is concentration, not a trophy. A cheaper imported house that won is a margin fact. Failed pass-through and a dead six months is distress logic. Held pass-through across several accounts can support the high end of the current cell. Cite ISM Prices 71.1 and the 244000 announced 2024 jobs with retrieval dates, then return to invoices. Confirm current HTS status with trade counsel. Do not freeze a rate. Do not treat a hoped-for exclusion as trailing earnings. Do not invent a tariff multiple. Keep headlines in the first paragraph, not in the last word on price.
Why announced jobs and your surcharge ledger are different exhibits
The Reshoring Initiative’s 244,000 announced jobs in 2024 and 1.7 million since 2010 are climate. They belong in a paragraph with a retrieval date of 2026-09-10. They do not belong in the vendor table. Your exhibit is eight quarters of sales by domestic versus imported content, by program, and by whether a surcharge stuck. One OEM who became 38 percent of sales during a shift is concentration, not a trophy. A cheaper imported house that won a quote is a margin fact. Failed pass-through and a dead six months is distress logic.
Held pass-through across several accounts can support the high end of the current size-band and sub-sector cell. It does not create a tariff multiple. It does not freeze a section 232 or 301 rate. Confirm current HTS status with trade counsel on the date you write the CIM. Do not treat a hoped-for exclusion as trailing earnings.
ISM Prices at 71.1 in August 2026 tells you the cycle is still talking about prices. Your invoices tell you whether you collected. A CIM that reprints a press release and skips the surcharge ledger is a policy essay. Keep headlines in the first paragraph. Keep the last word on price with the mix table.
If a tariff shock zeroed a program and the book has not healed, stop using a going-concern multiple from a fat year. The distressed-manufacturer sequence applies. If the book healed, throw out the shock script. Facts, not patriotism, decide which script you are in. Owners who need climate-plus-diligence without a tariff multiple should read reshoring, tariffs, and what they mean for owners.